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What Happens to a Coin That Doubles in a Day? One Year of Data

How far can a coin go up in one day? I went through a full year of Bybit futures data, day by day, to find out. The biggest move was MMT at 23x intraday, and a coin more than doubled in a single day 88 times in that year. What caught my attention more was what came after. Of the 81 cases where I could see the price 30 days later, 71 were below that day's close, and 52 had lost more than half.

Why I counted

You hear about coins that go up several times in a day all the time. Whenever I saw one, my first thought was: how often does this actually happen? I also wanted to know what happens to those coins afterwards. My gut said they fall back. I just didn't know how often, or how fast.

How I counted

This isn't a backtest of a trading rule. It's a plain count of price history, so fees and funding aren't part of it.

The biggest day: MMT, 23x intraday

First place goes to MMT on November 4, 2025. The previous close was 0.4533, and that day it hit a high of 10.53. That's +2,223% intraday, or 23x. If you had put in $1,000 that morning and sold at the exact top, you'd have had $23,230. Almost nobody actually sold there, of course. The day closed at 2.60, which would have been $5,740.

MMT on November 4, 2025: up to 23x the previous close intraday, then down to 0.5x after 30 days, on 15-minute candles

The part of the chart worth looking at is after the spike. A week later MMT was 82% below that day's close. Thirty days later it was 90.5% below, roughly half of where it started the day before.

Ranked by closing price instead, the leader changes. All five of these were far below their closing price 30 days later.

CoinDateDaily gain (close / intraday)30 days later
TAIKO2026-07-01+546% / +656%-86%
BLESS2025-10-15+529% / +651%-88%
COAI2025-10-06+518% / +754%-60%
MMT2025-11-04+474% / +2,223%-90%
AIA2025-11-06+340% / +423%-96%

Top 5 one-day gains of the past year by closing price, and each coin's return 30 days later

88 doubling days in one year

On a closing basis, a coin gained more than 100% in a day 88 times over the past year. That's about 1.7 times a week. When the same coin did it more than once, I counted each time, and the 88 cases fell on 76 different days. Lower the bar to +50% and the count rises to 385. Coins jumping several times in a day turned out to be much less rare than I assumed.

It hasn't always been like this. Over the full 4 years and 9 months there were 157 days of +100% or more, and the split by year is lopsided.

YearTimes a coin gained +100% in a day
20225
20236
202413
202580
2026 (through September)53

The jump started in 2025. I wouldn't assume the last year looks like the years before it.

A month later, nine in ten were lower

Of the 88 cases, 81 have a price 30 days later. Six of the other seven happened in September, so 30 days haven't passed yet, and one has no price record at the 30-day mark.

30 days after 81 one-day doublings: 10 were higher than that day, 71 were lower, and 52 of those were below half

71 of the 81 (88%) were below that day's close. Only 10 were higher. 52 (64%) were below half of that day's close. When a coin that doubled in a day loses half, it's roughly back to where it was the day before the jump. The median 30-day return, the value right in the middle when you line them all up, was -60%.

Most of the drop came in the first few days

I expected a slow slide over the month. When I plotted it day by day, the front end was much steeper. The chart below follows the median of 87 cases for 30 days, starting the day after the doubling. It includes every case with at least a week of price data, which is why it's 87 and not 81.

Median path over the 30 days after a one-day doubling, 87 cases: -29% after 3 days, -45% after 7 days, -60% after 30 days

vs that day's closeMedian
3 days later-29%
7 days later-45%
30 days later-60%

Close to half of the 30-day decline happened within three days. After a week, three quarters of it was already gone.

The longer window tells a similar story. Of the 142 cases since 2022 with a 30-day price, 85% were below that day's close, with a median of -50%.

Some went the other way

Not every coin fell. AKE gained +257% on July 15, 2026, and 30 days later it was another +1,463% above that day's close. SIREN gained +273% on April 4, 2026 and was +51% after 30 days. Ten of the 81 cases ended higher like this. Nothing in this count tells you on the day which coins will be among those ten.

What I took from this

Coins that go up several times in a day aren't rare. Over the past year one showed up almost every week. The feeling that "a chance like this won't come again" doesn't match the numbers.

What happened afterwards leaned heavily one way. Most ended below that day's close, and much of the drop came within days. Entering near the close of a spike day would usually have looked worse the longer you held.

I also had to keep reminding myself that a number like 23x is an intraday high. On a closing basis, the same MMT day was 5.7x.

Caveats

Nothing here is investment advice. Crypto is volatile, and past results don't guarantee future returns.